Level 3 · Lesson 11 of 4 · Variant Mastery
Baccarat Side Bets: A Field Guide to Bad Odds
Why casinos offer side bets
Side bets exist because the main game's 1.06% Banker edge is, by casino standards, a thin margin. The house makes its profit on baccarat primarily through high volume: a high-turnover table at small stakes, or high-stakes VIP tables with large absolute losses even at low percentage edges.
Side bets give the casino an additional revenue stream with significantly higher margins. A player who places a $10 side bet on every hand alongside a $50 Banker main bet is running a secondary game with far higher expected losses. From the casino's perspective, side bets are margin enhancement on top of the main game.
The UKGC's industry statistics capture gross gaming yield by game category. The profitability of side bets is a consistent theme in casino management practice, even if it's not publicly reported in granular form. Understanding why they exist helps you not be drawn in by their surface appeal.
The pairs bets
The most universal baccarat side bets are Player Pair and Banker Pair.
Player Pair pays 11 to 1 when the first two Player cards are a pair (same rank). Banker Pair pays 11 to 1 when the first two Banker cards are a pair. Either Pair pays 5 to 1 when either the Player or Banker hand is dealt a pair on the first two cards.
The probability of any specific two-card pair in an 8-deck shoe (416 cards total, 32 cards of each rank) is approximately 7.47% per side. The true odds of this event paying out at 11 to 1 would require a probability of about 8.33% (1 in 12). The gap between 7.47% and 8.33% is the basis of the house edge.
House edges:
- Player Pair: 10.36%
- Banker Pair: 10.36%
- Either Pair: 4.86%
Either Pair has a lower edge because it pays 5 to 1 on a higher-probability event (either hand contains a pair), approximately 14.54% of hands. The lower payout relative to the higher combined probability yields the more favourable (though still poor) 4.86% edge.
At the Hippodrome's Heliot Salon Prive, pairs bets are available on the live tables. The 10.36% edge is identical whether you're in London, at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, or at the Venetian Macao.
The Tie bet as a side bet
The Tie bet carries a house edge of 14.36% at 8 to 1 payout, and 4.85% at the rare 9 to 1 payout. It's covered in detail in Lesson 4 and Lesson 8. It belongs here because it functions as a side bet: it is not a main game bet, its edge is in the same bracket as the pair bets, and it is often placed by players who confuse long odds with value.
Dragon Bonus
Dragon Bonus is a side bet found at some tables, particularly in Evolution Gaming's live dealer studios. It pays on the margin of victory: a natural win (8 or 9 on first two cards) pays 1 to 1, and non-natural wins pay increasing amounts based on the point spread, from 2 to 1 (for a win by four points) up to 30 to 1 (for a non-natural win by nine points).
Eliot Jacobson's analysis at apheat.net puts the house edge at approximately 2.65% for the Player Dragon Bonus and around 9.37% for the Banker Dragon Bonus, depending on the paytable variant. The wide range reflects different operator configurations, not player decisions. Even the better version at 2.65% is more than twice the Banker main bet edge.
Lucky 6
Lucky 6 is a side bet that pays when Banker wins with a total of 6. On a commission table, it typically pays 12 to 1 for a three-card Lucky 6 and 20 to 1 for a two-card Lucky 6, though paytables vary by operator. On Super 6 tables, Lucky 6 is sometimes added to let players speculate specifically on the event that triggers the reduced Banker payout.
House edge on Lucky 6 varies by paytable but typically runs between 12% and 17%. It is among the worst-performing recurring side bets in baccarat.
A note on what you'll see at the table
At most live London tables and at the main-floor rooms of properties like Crown Melbourne or Marina Bay Sands, the side bet boxes are printed directly on the felt. They're right there in front of you every hand: Player Pair on the Player side, Banker Pair on the Banker side. Some rooms add Either Pair in the centre. The layout makes them feel like a natural part of the game. They're not. They're optional add-ons with house edges that sit between four and fourteen times the main bet edge.
One pit boss I spoke to at a high-limit room told me, without particular embarrassment, that pairs bets are disproportionately popular with experienced baccarat players who've become bored of the main game's low variance. That's honest. If you're placing them out of boredom, you know what they cost. If you're placing them because you think they're strategic, they aren't.
Card counting and side bets
The one context in which side bets become technically interesting is card counting. Eliot Jacobson's published research demonstrates that Dragon 7 in EZ Baccarat, Panda 8, and some pairs bets can yield player edges of 1.5% to 9% when the shoe composition is favourable, as identified through counting. This is discussed in full in Lesson 19. For most players in most sessions, that context doesn't apply.
Key numbers
| Side Bet | Payout | House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Player Pair | 11 to 1 | 10.36% |
| Banker Pair | 11 to 1 | 10.36% |
| Either Pair | 5 to 1 | 4.86% |
| Tie (8 to 1) | 8 to 1 | 14.36% |
| Tie (9 to 1) | 9 to 1 | 4.85% |
| Dragon 7 (EZ) | 40 to 1 | 7.61% |
| Panda 8 (EZ) | 25 to 1 | 10.19% |
| Dragon Bonus (Player) | Variable | ~2.65% |
Sources: Eliot Jacobson on baccarat side bets, Hippodrome baccarat, Evolution Gaming baccarat, Marina Bay Sands table games, UKGC industry statistics.
Welcome to the lesson on baccarat side bets.
I'm Annabel, and I'll be direct: this lesson is a field guide to things you should mostly avoid. Side bets in baccarat are additional games bolted to the table, each carrying a house edge between four and fourteen times the Banker main bet. They exist to increase casino margins on a game whose main-bet edge is, by casino standards, genuinely thin.
The pairs bets first. You'll find them at nearly every table.
Player Pair pays eleven to one when the first two Player cards share the same rank. Banker Pair pays eleven to one for the same thing on the Banker side. Either Pair pays five to one when either hand is dealt a pair. In an eight-deck shoe, the probability of a specific two-card pair on a given hand is roughly seven point four seven percent. An eleven-to-one payout would need that probability to be one in twelve, or eight point three three percent, to be a fair bet. The gap between seven point four seven and eight point three three is the house edge. Player Pair and Banker Pair both sit at ten point three six percent.
Either Pair is better, at four point eight six percent. It's still four times worse than the Banker main bet.
The Heliot Salon Prive at the Hippodrome on Leicester Square prints the pair bet boxes directly into the felt. They're there in front of you on every single hand. That's not an accident.
The Tie. Fourteen point three six percent at eight to one. I've covered this in detail in Lesson Four and Lesson Eight, and I won't labour it here. You already know.
Dragon Seven, in EZ Baccarat. Pays forty to one when Banker wins with a three-card seven. Seven point six one percent. Panda Eight, also in EZ Baccarat. Pays twenty-five to one when Player wins with a three-card eight. Ten point one nine percent.
Dragon Bonus. Found at some tables, including in Evolution Gaming's live dealer studios. Pays on the margin of victory, from one to one on a natural win up to thirty to one on a non-natural nine-point win. House edge approximately two point six five percent on the Player version, nine point three seven percent on Banker, depending on the paytable. Even the better figure is more than twice the Banker main bet.
Lucky Six. Pays when Banker wins with a total of six. House edge typically between twelve and seventeen percent, varying by operator. One of the worst recurring side bets in baccarat.
Here's why casinos offer all of these. The Banker main bet at one point zero six percent is, by casino standards, a thin margin. Baccarat makes enormous revenue not because the edge is high but because the stakes are enormous. A player wagering two hundred thousand Hong Kong dollars a hand at a Wynn Macau VIP table contributes meaningful absolute amounts to gross gaming yield at one point zero six percent. But on a lower-stakes mass-market floor, the main bet alone doesn't generate enough yield per seat per hour. Side bets are the solution.
Now here's the practical picture of what this costs you.
Say you're playing at the Hippodrome, seventy hands an hour at a fifty-pound main bet. That's three thousand five hundred pounds wagered per hour on the main game. At one point zero six percent, your expected hourly cost is thirty-seven pounds ten. Fine. That's the honest price of the entertainment.
Now add a five-dollar Banker Pair side bet on every hand. That's three hundred and fifty dollars per hour in side bet wagering. At ten point three six percent, the expected hourly cost of that habit alone is thirty-six dollars twenty-six. You've almost doubled your expected loss for the evening by adding a five-dollar chip to a side box.
That's the number most players don't run. The side bet looks small next to the main game. The edge isn't.
The one exception worth noting: under card counting conditions, Dragon Seven, Panda Eight, and some pairs bets can yield player edges when the shoe composition is favourable. Eliot Jacobson's published research at apheat.net covers this in detail. Lesson Nineteen covers it here. For a standard session with no counting, it doesn't apply.
Ignore the side bets. Bet the main game.
A final note on what you'll see when you sit down. At live tables in London, at the Hippodrome's Heliot and at the Marina Bay Sands main floor, the side bet boxes are printed directly on the felt. Player Pair on the Player side. Banker Pair on the Banker side. Sometimes Either Pair in the centre. The layout treats them as part of the game. They are not. They're optional extras with house edges running from four to fourteen times the Banker main bet. The felt doesn't tell you the edge. You need to bring that knowledge yourself. Which is exactly what this lesson is for.